Netflux

Judging by their slightly downbeat demeanour, it’s safe to assume that all these actors were all just getting into the swing of filming when a Netflix representative shut everything down and got them to read out their line of their meaningless spiel. None of them are happy about it. Charlize Theron actively looks like she had to be tranquillised to do it. But that doesn’t matter. They still did it. Once again, Netflix triumphs over the human spirit.

“It’s not like they go, ‘Here’s a pile of money for you,’” he explains. “It’s more like, ‘that’s an investment for you to make things.’ Also, I’m so clueless on the business side of things. Probably, if you look at the paperwork, I’m going to get paid in rice.”

Both Netflix and Spotify have independently advertised for producers and other staff to help Prince Harry and Meghan Markle finally make good on their promise to deliver shows and podcast episodes after the couple was reportedly paid more than a combined $120 million for their content

Eavesdropping in Soho bars is rarely as much fun as it used to be. On Wednesday, for instance, your correspondent couldn’t help but overhear the following: “Mate, it’s carnage. Amazon said they don’t want it any more. They said, ‘Try theatrical.’ I mean, I don’t know who to ask. Apple isn’t buying. It’s going to take ages. Who knows if the guys will still be around?”

Ah yes, we are coming face-to-face with the hardest winter in TV memory after people in production companies spent much of 2022 smugly reassuring each other that the recession wouldn’t hit them as “it’s the golden age of content – everyone’s buying”.

In 2023, everyone’s cancelling. Among others, Netflix has laid to rest the mystery sci-fi series 1899, Dead End: Paranormal Park, Inside Job, The Chair and Uncoupled; HBO cancelled Doom Patrol and Titans; Disney+ axed The Mysterious Benedict Society, Reboot and Kindred.

And if all of those fall into the “what show was that again?” bracket, that partly explains the problem. Many of these shows, including 1899 (which topped the Netflix charts), The Chair and Inside Job, were canned after their first or second season – because there is simply too much content.

“I could list about five shows we’ve had to cancel this month. All good shows, and you wouldn’t have heard of any of them,” one Netflix insider tells me. “You need a blizzard of publicity and some heavy, early viewer-interest, or the show just sinks to the bottom of the pool and lies there. It’s a shame. There’s some great stuff still on there that no one has seen.”

HBO Max has cancelled the Gossip Girl reboot after two seasons

But we’ve also lost heavier hitters in Westworld, the Gossip Girl reboot, Snowpiercer, The Mosquito Coast, Pennyworth and Let the Right One In. Warner Brothers canned the Batgirl movie – aimed at a small screen release – after it had been filmed and was in post-production, putting it down as a tax write-off.

In the UK, the carnage is less dramatic, although there’s a higher-than-usual crop of shows coming to the end of the line – some through natural causes, others through poor performance. ITV’s Endeavour is being laid to rest by the creators after 10 years – a good innings, as they say – while Spitting Image is being dragged off BritBox after just two seasons. Bradley Walsh has taken the blame for ending The Larkins, saying he doesn’t have time to film a third season. Other shows such as Kate & Koji, The Good Karma Hospital, The Long Call, Gentleman Jack and The Time Traveller’s Wife have lost US backing.

Gentleman Jack, for instance, isn’t officially cancelled, but HBO has pulled funding, and that makes it unlikely that the BBC can afford to keep making the show. Creator Sally Wainwright has already said she wouldn’t want to continue without it having the same production values and would need to find another partner who would stream it globally. But the economics of the “golden age of television” are changing rapidly.

Gentleman Jack with Suranne Jones is not officially cancelled but HBO has pulled its funding

“Drama is becoming so expensive, especially in the UK,” explains Ed Waller, editorial director of trade bible C21 Media. “Talent costs are going through the roof – there’s a skills shortage behind the camera and European crews are reluctant to come to the UK post-Brexit. That means we just don’t have enough people to film good drama. The industry is launching training schemes across the business, but it’s going to take a couple of years to skill up. You can expect a strong move from scripted to unscripted shows – reality is back, basically. With the exception of Autumnwatch, obviously, which was canned at the start of the year.”

This is potentially a bigger problem than it seems. US streamers are facing a chill wind from Wall Street, while digital giants such as Facebook and YouTube, which were investing in original series a couple of years ago, have moved on. Disney has just cut 7,000 jobs and $3billion (£2.5billion) from its film and TV budget.

“British TV can’t really afford to make the drama it’s making without overseas money,” Waller says. “The BBC drama The Gold has money from the US streaming service Paramount+, which is showing it everywhere else in the world. A Spy Among Friends on ITV is a Sony production. The UK has done especially well out of the streaming wars.”

Jack Lowden as Kenneth Noye in BBC drama The Gold

Now that tap is shutting off, the question is: can we afford to make the kind of quality drama we’re used to? Broadcasters are officially sanguine – in part because not all streamers are affected. Disney+, HBO and Netflix are the hardest hit: financial pressures mean they’re commissioning fewer shows, while Amazon, Apple and Paramount are staying the course. And for upcoming shows such as Django, the spectacular Western on Sky Atlantic, European money from Canal+ is topping up the budget.

But the fiscal problems Hollywood is facing are only increasing. The Writers Guild of America, the Directors Guild of America, and the Screen Actors Guild are all negotiating new contracts this year, as well as pushing for higher residuals – payments every time an episode is shown – that force up programme budgets. As a result, studios that have recently kept their content to their own streamers – Disney, for instance, holding Star Wars shows purely for Disney+ – are going back to licensing them to others.

Warner, NBC, Disney and Sony are flogging licences for their surviving shows to drive up revenue, meaning they’ll be looking to flood Britain with their programming while pulling out of deals with UK drama producers.

In one sense, then, maybe all that’s going to happen is your favourite show moves from Disney+ to the BBC. Sweet deal; cancel your subscription; what’s not to like? But then there’s less space and less money for UK shows. And how easy would it be for Sally Wainwright to say she wants to wait 10 years for the final season of Happy Valley because you need time for good quality?

Time is money, and there’s a whole lot less around. If there’s a show you like, now’s the time to let the broadcasters know.